NickBlack.com

Oil Threatens Marine Life – ABC News

I’ve just met Dr. Guggenheim on Twitter. As we suspected the amount of Methane in the spill was being underestimated. Thank you Matt Simmons for being right on the ball. This is not going to go away.

If you’re interested in a great source for Ocean information go to  1-Planet 1-Ocean.

Oil Threatens Marine Life – ABC News, posted with vodpod

UK Film Council

Posted in Business, Economy, Film by nickblack on July 28, 2010

I’m seeing both sides of this issue, but in my heart I have grave, probably libertarian, problems with Government deciding who gets funded. It always ends up being a rigged game of poker in an old boy’s club. Chris Atkins wrote this piece for the Times so I won’t reproduce it here, instead this is the Blogpost on Starsuckers
I thought the amount those guys got paid was outrageous. I have no problem with people making money, but you want to make that kind of money, go start a business. If you think that’s stupid let me know. Don’t be shy.

NuclearTerror.org

Posted in Collapse, Environment, Humor, Nuclear, Science, Technology, Terrorism, War by nickblack on July 28, 2010

This is the best new game. Well not so much a game, more of a way to brighten up your afternoon. Go here and put in your city or postcode and you can see what a DragonFire 10 kiloton nuclear bomb would do in the event of a terrorist attack. How much fun is that? Not really.

This is the ForaTV link to see Graham Allison talking about it.

WikiLeaks at Frontline

Posted in Cloud Journalism, War, WikiLeaks by nickblack on July 28, 2010

Last night’s Frontline event with Julian Assange of WikiLeaks was a spellbinding look into Cloud Journalism. The issue itself, whether it is ethical to publish leaks which may in the future endanger troops and civilians, is almost secondary to what it tells us about the way Journalism functions, or more accurately, what it is today. What makes the WikiLeaks story so interesting is the way in which Assange gave the Afghan Diary to journalists at major news organizations like the Guardian, the New York Times and Der Spiegel. It seems to be saying that the analytical resources and the rigour of the editing in these outfits are valuable in that they lend credibility and accessablilty to the information.

The trend toward Cloud Journalism will accelerate and as it does so it will inevitably change not only the way in which we consume and use information and news, it will change that information or news in fundamental ways. What is news if most everyday happenings are on Twitter within 5 minutes? Which makes WikiLeaks all the more interesting as a source. The only thing that is really news in this environment is information that has been hidden or suppressed. Spy vs WikiSpy.

Look at the Frontline event here:
And on ForaTV there’s a two way debate here and Wired Editor here:

As for the argument whether WikiLeaks is endangering troops and civilians, Daniel Ellsberg settled that one a while ago. The US and UK public have been misled to an even greater degree during the current Mid East debacle than during the Vietnam War. With luck the Afghan War Logs will have as profound effect on this war as the Pentagon Papers did on Vietnam. The chances of Mr Assange making life worse for Afghanis is remote.

Go to wikileaks for the entire story (But not now. It’s so busy I think the servers going to crash)

And this is the US Special Forces Unconventional Warfare Operations which Julian mentioned last night.

Like the Fax machines that finally brought down the Soviet Union, the new Information Cloud will bring this war down.

Matt Simmons on Bloomberg

Posted in Business, Collapse, Economy, Environment, Humor, Oil, Technology by nickblack on July 23, 2010

I was talking about the Matt Simmons story in BP and the Giant Blender. This is his Bloomberg interview. The Bonnie storm is bad, but if this story is true, a hurricane in the gulf is the least of BP’s problems, not to mention the US Administration. What if they knew? What if this is the Oil Industry’s Lehman Brother’s moment? Just imagine if it turned out that the largest of BP’s US shareholders, a little operation called BlackRock, had close connections to members of the Obama administration. When I say “little operation” I mean about $3.15 trillion under management, which is nearly a $trillion bigger than the Federal Reserve. But what’s spooky, in a Jason Bourne kind of way, is the friendship between BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Timothy Geithner, the current Secretary of the Treasury. It would be weird if Larry Fink, who was the person who pioneered the Mortgage Backed Securities Market while he was at First Boston, and to whom Mr Geithner turned in his hour of need when Bear Stearns went into meltdown in March 2008, was mixed up in some sort of Oil Industry meltdown as well. I mean, that’s just a terrible run of bad luck. You invent a completely clever way to sell Mortages as a kind of faux investment, and you accidentally bring the global economy to its knees.  Then, just when you think things are getting straightened out, you buy into a firm that is drilling for oil in the Gulf, for energy security. Makes sense.  It’s really energy patriotism, in a way. But then that stupid bunch at Transocean go and blow the thing up. Just bad luck Larry.

I thought the profile of Larry Fink in Vanity Fair was, well, fair…

BP and the Storm of Idiots

Posted in Business, Economy, Environment, Humor, Peak Oil by nickblack on July 22, 2010

Is this possible? The Communications people at probably the most beleaguered large corporation on earth thought it would be okay to (badly) Photoshop an image of the control room. Make the boys at the screens look busier while they’re stopping the oil spill. And then say that it was just some kid showing off. Yeah, that’s reassuring. We are handling the greatest environmental disaster in America’s history, but we thought it would be okay to let someone play with Photoshop. Not really. First you will look like (even worse) idiots, and second, there’s a tropical storm developing in the Gulf.

But when you look at this Jon Stewart video it all becomes clear, in a terrifying sort of way…

BP and the Syncrude Tailings Dam – an apology

Posted in Business, Economy, Environment, Humor, Peak Oil, Technology by nickblack on July 21, 2010

In my post “Nature is not a Machine”, since I was essentially writing humour I didn’t think to include references. I apologize unreservedly. I got a comment from a person who disagreed with me that it was a large area and an ecological blight on the landscape. This is a picture of the Syncrude Tailings Dam. You are free to make up your own minds if this a) attractive, or b) an easily fixed piece of geo-engineering. You are looking at 540,000,000 cubic meters of toxic sludge. My original point was a comparison with the “catastrophe” in the Gulf, while this is business as usual in Alberta. Of course I realize that it’s the absolute right of the good people of Alberta to do this to their landscape if they wish.

BP and the Giant Blender

Posted in Business, Economy, Environment, Humor, Peak Oil by nickblack on July 21, 2010

The Pope coming out of the closet is about the only thing to get BP off the front page, but still you have to give their publicists some credit. Well, aside from the sailing business I mentioned before. I’ve been away from the writing machine on a big reading/film jag, researching the location of the $2trillion the West spent on Aid, you know, that the poor people didn’t see. I found out where some of it went and I’ll tell you later.

But in the meantime, the BP thing keeps getting more gruesome by the hour. First it looks like there’s a teeny problem with oil clean up crew life expectancy. And BP doesn’t want the papers full of pictures of clean up crews in Hazmat suits on the beach looking like extras from Quatermass. But this lady noticed the life expectancy of the people who cleaned up after Exxon Valdez was 51.

Which is a lot longer than the brown pelicans are going to get. I was at Frontline for the “Politics of Oil” this week. John Vidal, who’s day job is Guardian Environment editor, and who chaired the panel, got so mad he said Fuck on TV.

Ben Amunwa of Platform told us that in the Niger Delta this sort of spill is everyday stuff and that we had to stop the oil companies. Okay, you first. I mean if boycotting oil was a rational strategy for most people we’d be on our way.

It was strange, two of the panellists, eminent scientists both, seemed to be far more sanguine with the whole thing than I would have expected.

Dr. Boxall is an Oceanographer at University of Southampton, and has studied oil spills for years. I had a chat with him in the bar after the gig, and he really reassured me, apart from the comment about the gigantic quantities of methane in the spill. I’ll get to that in a minute. Dr Richard Pike, chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry, was a little cautious, but on the whole didn’t think it was right to lynch the entire board of BP which was the attitude of most of the audience. Chris Skrebowski, who runs the Peak Oil Consultancy, and who worked for BP at one point, even thought we hadn’t got to peak oil yet. I asked him during the question time if, since we’re at 85 million barrels a day for the last 5 years, if we’d see 80 or 90 first. He surprised me when he said 90. We’ll see. I should have bet him $20.

But what about all that methane? Matt Simmons, who knows a thing or two about Big Oil, thinks there’s a lot more going on than BP have told us yet. Matt is not some hippie raver, at least not when I met him. He’s a straight talking Texan businessman and he’s been right about a lot of things. I think he’s right this time too. It’s tough to explain concentrations a million times background. His explanation is that there is in fact a giant pool of oil on the floor of the gulf, 5000 ft down under enormous pressure, mixed with Methane, leaking out of a fractured sea floor.

It’s July. The Hurricane season is just getting going. It’s a hot year. According to NOAA it’s shaping up to be the hottest on record. Hurricanes like heat. All we need is a category 5 to come sweeping out of the Atlantic like a woman scorned and we’ll have a blender 100 miles across, 30,000 ft high, full of oil, methane, mud, dead pelicans, bits of oil rig and oil workers and clean up chemicals, hitting the coast at 200mph. And you thought Katrina was a bitch.

Note to Tony BP

Posted in Business, Economy, Environment, Humor by nickblack on June 20, 2010

You went sailing? You were racing your boat, Bob, in the JP Morgan Asset Management Round the Island race? I can understand the stress you’ve been under, but if that’s your level of insight into the public mood you need to make an appointment with your therapist for Monday. And while you’re at it, fire your publicist.

Tagged with: ,

Nature is not a Machine

Posted in Economy, Environment, Peak Oil, Technology by nickblack on June 20, 2010

Nature is not a machine. I’ve noticed a growing hubris in the way in which people are talking about the BP catastrophe, not least Mr. Obama, who although he’s a lawyer, should know better.  We are listening to these people talking about ‘putting it right’ in the same way that one would fix a broken watch. Replace broken parts and all is well. This drive for the metaphorical arises from the way our cognitive systems seek pattern, which is mostly an evolutionary good, but it has its limits. The wrong metaphor can lead us to desperately wrong analysis.

Nature is not a machine. There are no spare parts. There is no fix. Rather, it’s a cohesive biological system of unimaginable complexity. What has happened in the Gulf of Mexico has changed the environment – forever. The system state has been radically altered and the expectation that it can be put back the way it was is scientifically naïve. I’m sure there will be remediation efforts, but that will not, ever, put that coast back the way it was. This conceit of nature as our pet machine is clearly of machine age origin, but now that we have so much better metaphors for the way the world works, why do we insist on continuing with the same old nonsense? In the last 30 years, with the advent of genetics, the language of modern biology provides us with far more useful metaphors – and modes of analysis. We have nudged a complex ecosystem out of equilibrium. It will eventually find a new equilibrium, but that may not include the existence of blue fin tuna. You were tired of sushi anyway, right?

This is a map of what the Gulf looks like. Notice that it looks a lot more like a nervous system than a machine. It is. It is the nervous system of the beast we’ve made.

(Image thanks to Matthew Baker at ESRI Educational Services)

If we look at this as a biological system whose health we have compromised we can start thinking in terms of the way in which biological systems recover – they heal. And that healing process leaves scars. Life continues, but not with the same vigour as before. And sometimes recovery is impossible and life ceases. The Southeast coast of America may partially recover, but some of the more fragile populations will not. The complex web of life that makes up that ecosystem has been diminished, and pretending that it’s all just going to get taken to the mechanics and put right is offensive. Pretending that it’s just a matter of the BP executive writing impressive cheques makes it worse.

While we’re at it, why is the Gulf of Mexico a catastrophe and Alberta is a business opportunity? Every single peak oil geologist and ecologist I know has been on about what the downside of the oil production curve will look like since Colin Campbell started the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. No mystery. No magic. They have been saying for at least a decade that it will make parts of earth look like bad science fiction. Irrevocably damaged/destroyed ecosystems – which are not easily isolated from the larger planet wide ecology – will inevitably leak their toxins. What cancerous horrors await the good people of Alberta we can only imagine. Massive bird casualties are routine. But no one seems to think of it as a catastrophe.

Let’s put it in context. The largest dam in the world is China’s three gorges project. The second largest is in Alberta. It’s called the Syncrude Tailings dam. It contains 540,000,000 cubic metres of toxic sludge. That is one tailing pond. It total Alberta has 840,000,000 cubic metres in tailing ponds, covering 170 sq. km. This is an Edward Burtynsky photo of what that looks like…

And you thought Mordor was scary? So while I’m not in any way trying to diminish the scale of what is happening in the Gulf, I think it’s good to remember that it’s business as usual in Alberta. Maybe we’re at a turning point. Maybe the BP spill is the thing that finally makes us think about what we’re up to. Oil is killing us, because we are part of the same biology. We are not a machine.

Links:

Nicholas Metivier Gallery

ESRI