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I’m not suggesting for a moment that it will be Mass Migration by itself that initiates the move to military governments in the West. It was Lester Brown’s recent article in Scientific American, in which he put forward his idea that failing states may be what causes civilization’s collapse, that made me realize that as the failure rate continues to accelerate the pressure of mass migration may be the earliest catalyst for the end of democracy in the West. As he points out, the pressures of desertification, water shortages, collapsing fisheries, famine, civil war and overpopulation etc., are already impacting states in the developing world to a far greater extent than the West. Some military planners in the US are coming to the conclusion that these pressures will pose a greater threat than terrorism and drugs. So assume that the stream of the dispossessed continues, climate continues toward chaos, population continues to explode, and the technological basis for a military state already exists in the US and Europe. Then how robust are our vaunted democracies?

We in the West have assumed for a long time that democratic government is our inalienable right, fought for over centuries by heroes of liberty. We also assume, somewhat more questionably, that it is by definition the ne plus ultra of political evolution and therefore the ultimate aspiration of people the world over. There are a number of problems with these ideas; mostly that they aren’t true. Democracy is notoriously fragile and there is nothing inalienable about it. Its progression in Europe, beginning (more or less) in 6th century BC Athens, has been sporadic. Athenian democracy fell to Alexander’s monarchy, the Roman republic to Octavian, the first Emperor in 31 BC. It wasn’t until the 18th century that anything we understand as a democracy re-emerged. Since 1960 the great majority of nation states self identify as democracies. This is a little like asking people if they are honest. The majority of the world’s population lives under regimes that are corrupt, incompetent or worse. For example Zimbabwe, Colombia, and Turkmenistan consider themselves to be democracies. Francis Fukuyama famously announced in “The End of History”, that liberal democracy had won the day as the peak of socio-political evolution. It is possible he may have been over optimistic.

In his new book, “From Democrats to Kings: The Brutal Dawn of a New World from the Downfall of Athens to the Rise of Alexander the Great”, Michael Scott makes some chilling comparisons between the current situation and those that caused the collapse of Greek democracy: crippling economic downturn, uncontrolled immigration and unpopular wars. In other words, emergencies that overwhelmed the ability of democracy to adapt fast enough. Sooner of later a powerful elite takes control. Much the same story could be told of the rise of fascism in 20th century states. When democratic governments fail authoritarian/military governments tend to be the default. It’s hard to see what makes the present crisis different, except the scale of the problem is global rather than local. Given the fact that western governments have thus far failed completely to make any effective changes regarding either climate or resource depletion it’s reasonable to imagine that if there is, as Kunstler calls it, a long emergency, then Democracy will fail and be replaced by more authoritarian regimes.

The Pentagon, NATO, and the military establishment in Europe are well aware of the challenges and there is now a significant defence literature dealing with Peak Oil, Climate and Migration. Some of the scenarios being investigated by military planners are bolder than others, and include the prospect of taking control of more than just the states they are charged with defending. In his award winning paper entitled “Imperialism 21: Hedging and Abandoning History”, Lieutenant Commander Joey Dodgen wrote:

“As far-fetched as it sounds, the advantages captured through colonial or imperial ventures would be numerous, including, but certainly not limited to, resource control and forward military basing…Economic imperialism is crucial to securing resources, maintaining favourable trade, and calming America’s business market amidst the daily turmoil of global terrorism. Economic imperialism is of no less importance to the United States than military imperialism.”

The attitude is understandable, even if on the basis of our performance in Iraq and Afghanistan, unlikely to be crowned with success. The Pentagon is tasked with defending the “American Way of Life” or at least the integrity of the developed countries, and it will do so to the best of its ability. The same stance is true of European military and intelligence. They are clearly expecting to deal with an increasingly chaotic environment and are examining ways to succeed. So the stage is set; the technological triumvirate is in place and there is no reason to expect that as the 21st century progresses the West will not become increasingly militarized.

So the answer to the last question of the Rare Events post, “At what point are people scared enough of the influx to want what is essentially a military government?” is that they won’t be asked. Our responses to the Drug War and Terrorism have already laid the groundwork for such a transition. All that would be required is the continuation of the current crisis until a permanent state of emergency can be declared. We will likely adopt a far harsher view of mass migration as conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Mexico, India, and a host of lesser failing states continue to deteriorate.

Of more immediate concern is the effect of mass migration on those states nearby failing states – contagion. It is happening all across Africa as one state fails and as populations become displaced they are naturally moving into neighbouring states, themselves already fragile. Recent analyst meetings and war games in the US have concluded that the next 20 years of climate and ecological degradation will produce catastrophic events, including storms, migrations, droughts and pandemics, which will require US military intervention.

I believe that the economic collapse of the West will make such expensive interventions impossible in the future and that the developing world is close to a tipping point, after which recursive feedback effects will overwhelm the developed world’s ability to place failing states on life support – they’ll be on life support themselves. Which leads me to think that we will be taking more of a defensive position as our politicians give up on the idea of bombing the world into democracy and focus on maintaining order at home. Which brings me to my next topic: Fractal Collapse.