NickBlack.com

Capitalism Hits the Fan

Posted in Business, Collapse, Economy, us by nickblack on September 4, 2010

Dear Ones: I know some people think I’m an eco collapse Dmitry Orlov freak. I don’t take offense. This is Richard Wolff on ForaTV. And you thought I was scary…?

Matt Simmons

Posted in Business, Economy, Environment, Oil, Peak Oil, Technology, bp by nickblack on August 9, 2010

I have just received  an email from Judy Gristwood at Ocean Energy Insitute to say that Matt Simmons passed away suddenly on Sunday. Matt was an extraordinary man, and will be remembered as one of those who tried to alert the world to the imminent dangers of oil and gas depletion and its effects on our way of life. Thank you Matt and Godspeed.

WikiLeaks at Frontline

Posted in Cloud Journalism, War, WikiLeaks by nickblack on July 28, 2010

Last night’s Frontline event with Julian Assange of WikiLeaks was a spellbinding look into Cloud Journalism. The issue itself, whether it is ethical to publish leaks which may in the future endanger troops and civilians, is almost secondary to what it tells us about the way Journalism functions, or more accurately, what it is today. What makes the WikiLeaks story so interesting is the way in which Assange gave the Afghan Diary to journalists at major news organizations like the Guardian, the New York Times and Der Spiegel. It seems to be saying that the analytical resources and the rigour of the editing in these outfits are valuable in that they lend credibility and accessablilty to the information.

The trend toward Cloud Journalism will accelerate and as it does so it will inevitably change not only the way in which we consume and use information and news, it will change that information or news in fundamental ways. What is news if most everyday happenings are on Twitter within 5 minutes? Which makes WikiLeaks all the more interesting as a source. The only thing that is really news in this environment is information that has been hidden or suppressed. Spy vs WikiSpy.

Since the Frontline event, it has come out that Mr Assange had only read 4000 of the Log entries. Which puts a different spin on things.

Look at the Frontline event here:
And on ForaTV there’s a two way debate here and Wired Editor here:

Go to wikileaks for the entire story.

And this is the US Special Forces Unconventional Warfare Operations which Julian mentioned last night.

Like the Fax machines that finally brought down the Soviet Union, the new Information Cloud will bring this war down. The question is, where does this leave the ordinary people of Afghanistan, and those brave enough to have helped the coalition forces?

BP and the Syncrude Tailings Dam – an apology

Posted in Business, Economy, Environment, Humor, Peak Oil, Technology by nickblack on July 21, 2010

In my post “Nature is not a Machine”, since I was essentially writing humour I didn’t think to include references. I apologize unreservedly. I got a comment from a person who disagreed with me that it was a large area and an ecological blight on the landscape. This is a picture of the Syncrude Tailings Dam. You are free to make up your own minds if this a) attractive, or b) an easily fixed piece of geo-engineering. You are looking at 540,000,000 cubic meters of toxic sludge. My original point was a comparison with the “catastrophe” in the Gulf, while this is business as usual in Alberta. Of course I realize that it’s the absolute right of the good people of Alberta to do this to their landscape if they wish.

BP and the Giant Blender

Posted in Business, Economy, Environment, Humor, Peak Oil by nickblack on July 21, 2010

The Pope coming out of the closet is about the only thing to get BP off the front page, but still you have to give their publicists some credit. Well, aside from the sailing business I mentioned before. I’ve been away from the writing machine on a big reading/film jag, researching the location of the $2trillion the West spent on Aid, you know, that the poor people didn’t see. I found out where some of it went and I’ll tell you later.

But in the meantime, the BP thing keeps getting more gruesome by the hour. First it looks like there’s a teeny problem with oil clean up crew life expectancy. And BP doesn’t want the papers full of pictures of clean up crews in Hazmat suits on the beach looking like extras from Quatermass. But this lady noticed the life expectancy of the people who cleaned up after Exxon Valdez was 51.

Which is a lot longer than the brown pelicans are going to get. I was at Frontline for the “Politics of Oil” this week. John Vidal, who’s day job is Guardian Environment editor, and who chaired the panel, got so mad he said Fuck on TV.

Ben Amunwa of Platform told us that in the Niger Delta this sort of spill is everyday stuff and that we had to stop the oil companies. Okay, you first. I mean if boycotting oil was a rational strategy for most people we’d be on our way.

It was strange, two of the panellists, eminent scientists both, seemed to be far more sanguine with the whole thing than I would have expected.

Dr. Boxall is an Oceanographer at University of Southampton, and has studied oil spills for years. I had a chat with him in the bar after the gig, and he really reassured me, apart from the comment about the gigantic quantities of methane in the spill. I’ll get to that in a minute. Dr Richard Pike, chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry, was a little cautious, but on the whole didn’t think it was right to lynch the entire board of BP which was the attitude of most of the audience. Chris Skrebowski, who runs the Peak Oil Consultancy, and who worked for BP at one point, even thought we hadn’t got to peak oil yet. I asked him during the question time if, since we’re at 85 million barrels a day for the last 5 years, if we’d see 80 or 90 first. He surprised me when he said 90. We’ll see. I should have bet him $20.

But what about all that methane? Matt Simmons, who knows a thing or two about Big Oil, thinks there’s a lot more going on than BP have told us yet. Matt is not some hippie raver, at least not when I met him. He’s a straight talking Texan businessman and he’s been right about a lot of things. I think he’s right this time too. It’s tough to explain concentrations a million times background. His explanation is that there is in fact a giant pool of oil on the floor of the gulf, 5000 ft down under enormous pressure, mixed with Methane, leaking out of a fractured sea floor.

It’s July. The Hurricane season is just getting going. It’s a hot year. According to NOAA it’s shaping up to be the hottest on record. Hurricanes like heat. All we need is a category 5 to come sweeping out of the Atlantic like a woman scorned and we’ll have a blender 100 miles across, 30,000 ft high, full of oil, methane, mud, dead pelicans, bits of oil rig and oil workers and clean up chemicals, hitting the coast at 200mph. And you thought Katrina was a bitch.

Wintermute

Posted in Economy, Science, Technology by nickblack on June 10, 2010

“Welcome my son, welcome…to the machine.”

Pink Floyd, 1975

Twice a year since 1993 the TOP500 project has released a list of sites operating the 500 most powerful supercomputers. This June, in the number one spot is the Cray Jaguar at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with a benchmark speed of 1.759 Petaflops. A Petaflop is 1,000,000,000,000,000 floating point operations a second. In second place is a Chinese system at the National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen, called Nebulae. Nebulae has a benchmark speed of 1.27 Petaflops. The benchmark is used to standardize results, but gives a slower speed than the machine’s theoretical maximum. The theoretical maximum for Jaguar is 2.33 Petaflops, and for Nebulae it’s 2.98. So there are now supercomputers running at 2 Petaflops.

What makes this interesting is that futurist Ray Kurzweil estimates the computing speed necessary to emulate human intelligence is 10 Petaflops, or 1016 operations per second. A check of the Top 500 lists from the last few years confirms that Moore’s Law is alive and well in supercomputing. In June 2008 the 1Petaflop barrier was breached for the first time by an IBM cluster called Roadrunner at the US Department of Energy at Los Alamos. So it’s reasonable to assume that by June 2012 a machine will reach 8 Petaflops – within striking distance of Kurzweil’s estimate. Two years after that a machine will exist that is nearly twice as fast as brainspeed.

These speeds are opening up entirely new kinds of science. Simulation of complex systems like climate, astrophysics, fusion, and genetics. Researchers will be able to run simulations faster and cheaper for a huge variety of scientific and technological problems which have until now been impossible or prohibitively expensive. The most challenging of these problems is how to simulate operation of the brain’s 100 trillion neurons – the most complex object in the universe.

The Transhuman event horizon is nearly upon us. The merger of our biological intelligence with non biological intelligence is now within one decade. We are in the process of radically accelerating our own evolution. We began doing it inside computers in the 80s, molecular biology labs in the 90s and now we’re about to do it to ourselves. We are entering an era in which we will no longer be the smartest one in the room. By 2020 supercomputers wil be running at 64 Petaflops, more than 6 times brainspeed.

This represents the most fundamental paradigm shift in human evolution – a radical discontinuity in human history.

The TOP500 is a list only includes the systems that are volunteered to them. As Dr. Lockley, of the Oxford Supercomputing Centre, pointed out: “The spooks have got some pretty big machines.” So it appears that within five years either the US or Chinese intelligence agencies will have machines that are capable of simulating human intelligence.

Do we really want the NSA to be the first one on the block to have a functioning AI?

Good morning Wintermute, how are you today?

Tagged with: , ,

Prisoner of Fun

Posted in Humor, Uncategorized by nickblack on June 2, 2010

I went down to visit an old friend who manages a swish new watersports resort on the Turkish coast. A way of going to a sunny part of England, while pretending to go to Turkey. A camp for fun. Bugger local colour, the people who do these holidays are desperate and they have children. They want some corner of a foreign field that is forever England, and never mind the culture. Get on a plane full of English people for a few hours, then a night coach dash through the outskirts of some crumbling soviet style cities, into the deserted countryside and at midnight you arrive. Theoretically.

The plane was 3 hours late so we arrived in the middle of the night. I say ‘we’ because Ms Mia insisted that if I was going to the Mediterranean and I didn’t take her, there’d be trouble. Mad Ms M doesn’t do planes (we’re going to crash), coaches (we’re going to crash), or watersports (we’re going to drown and wearing sports clothing is stupid), so she came just to have a good moan. She’d thrashed her writing arm writing commercial copy  and wanted to sit by the pool and nurse herself back to what she imagines good health. Or so she said.

The room was tastefully done up in the style of an ancient Greek motel, if they’d had motels. Above our twin beds – one of the things about going on holiday with an ex – was a faux fresco fragment of Greek lovers from the classic age, all willowy limbs and diaphanous textiles. The sliding balcony door was framed in Doric columns of distressed beige, as were the beds. Even the marble floor was beige. But I bet we had better plumbing than half of Turkey.

We woke to that Mediterranean sky that reminds your interior designer of Farrow and Ball’s Cook’s Blue, and the sea a shade of Arsenic (number 214). After a wake up roll up on the balcony we went off to breakfast and that’s where the trouble started. The Turkish kitchen staff had gone mental. Unless you’ve survived since ancient Rome, or you’ve been a diplomat at one of those state bashes, you’ve never seen this much food in one place. Seconds. Thirds. Eat till you burst. Every meal, every day, was as much as you could ever conceive of eating and you left the dining terrace in a rolling stagger. Package holiday heaven.

Our fellow holiday makers were clad in the collective hallucination of English leisure: Quicksilver, Animal, Fat Face, O’Neill, Billabong…The logos of magical thinking: If we all just keep it up, we’ll live in a country with a climate  and we won’t work in Swindon, we’ll live on the beach in Australia and be tan and thin. No you won’t. As soon as they’d killed themselves with calories and covered each other in spf50, it was off to the beach and sailing. Ahhh, a laser dinghy on the morning bay. Light wind and clear water – more like a massage than sailing. The beach staff, all lovely young things, Turk and Brit, were so helpful you wanted to take them home. M got a beach lounger at the far end of the beach and worried about her tan in isolation. And that’s what we did. I sailed and she smoked and seethed on the beach. We ate and ate, and read and read and sailed and sailed.

We thought about blending in, but it was uphill. M kept muttering that these weren’t our people and I kept thinking that we didn’t have any people because that would imply some link to humanity. We looked wrong. There was some kind of barrier. Every time I got to talking to some nice couple from Richmond or Manchester I ended up making a mistake. I’d bring up the imminent collapse of civilization, or peak oil and they’ve got little children so they’re not thrilled to hear from some old loony that it’s all over and that Leicestershire will look like the Ukraine in 10 years. Or that was M’s explanation anyway. I thought it might be that she didn’t have that yummy mummy hair and the top shop beach wear with the gold trim and sequins. And then I found out from Simon, 11, that the kids called her the shouting wife and that explained it.

After a few days we both got the creeps. It was like being in that TV show from the 60s, the Prisoner, you kept expecting to see Patrick McGoohan and a big white balloon. Food arrived. As soon as you’d finished a plate it was whisked away by a smiling young Turkish person. You had fun on the beach. You couldn’t leave. You couldn’t leave because all the surrounding area is Turkish military and they have no sense of humour. At 4 in the afternoon there was a dinghy race, every day, which was always won by the same kid from Ireland. We only found out later he was a world class racer and we’d all been wasting our time. We did yoga. We did pilates. We did something with big balls, let me rephrase that, we did an exercise class where you sat on a big plastic ball and did sit ups till you cried. We ate again. In the evenings we sat in the beach bar and drank beer. People read big novels. Children annoyed their parents. It seemed timeless but in a terrifying way. I felt I knew how cows felt: domesticated and passive. Just a big domesticated mammal in a fun prison.

They made us go to into town on one day. We mountain biked. Not just any mountain bikes. All brand new Gary Fishers for Crissakes. A bit OTT for a 20 minute ride but hey, this is funtown. A fishing harbour teeming with feral cats and old men drinking tea from tiny glasses and smoking. We wandered the back streets and looked in the shops. This place had been a fishing harbour since Agamemnon was making trouble. Old stone lanes and alleys. It had that kind of marginal poverty you see in places on the fringes of the West. Not bad, but not great. All the wrong logos. Personality cult pictures of Ataturk everywhere. We ate terrible fish and chips and three strands of dead lettuce imitating a salad. I had to have a secret conversation in broken Turkish with the owner after pretending I was on my way to the toilet. M can’t stand the sight of fish with heads, so I had to ask them to filet the fish for us, but without letting her know or she would have been embarrassed. I was trying to explain phobias in a language I don’t speak. He was mystified, but did his best. It wasn’t much of an escape. All the people from the camp were at the same restaurant because it was the day we had to go to town and it was the only good one. We finished and biked home, defeated.

At last, Saturday, going home. You can only do this for a while. We sat around waiting for the coach. By now the kids were fed up, mums were ridiculous colours, and everyone  had gained 15 pounds. M had managed to burn her bum the colour of sunset in a last minute attempt to look like a Bedouin, so she couldn’t sit down properly. I’d windsurfed till my arms didn’t work anymore. Time to go. We piled on the coach and drove through towns made up entirely of pastel tower blocks stuck out in the dry hills. Who builds this stuff? Who lives there? Sort of bad Islamic science fiction dystopia sprouting endless satellite dishes. No trees. No water. No thanks.

We arrived at the airport and there was a security check before you entered the terminal. I thought that was a bit cheeky, I mean this is a Muslim country. I wanted to mention to the armed guard that I thought it was a bit rich, given that they were the ones blowing up our airports, not the other way round, but M talked me out of it. Same time next year?

Tagged with: , ,

Climate Gate and the new Porsche

Posted in Business, Collapse, Environment, Peak Oil, Science, Technology by nickblack on May 21, 2010

I was at the Frontline Club last night for an event called Climate Change: The Forgotten Crisis. I didn’t know we’d forgotten about it, so it came as a shock. I spend most of my time, when I’m not sleeping, thinking about it, so I must be a fanatic. The point is that after the so called “Climate Gate” business, climate’s been pushed to the back burner. Everyone’s fed up with the scientists and the question is: what are the challenges facing journalists and scientists in covering the issues? Or how can we make this interesting again without sounding stupid? Great panel with Richard Black, the BBC News Website environment correspondent, Julian Rush, the science correspondent for Channel 4 news and James Randerson for the Guardian.

Representing the Global Campaign for Climate Action, we had Kelly Rigg, who was fantastic. Yes, I’m a vile cynic and I not so secretly think we’ve passed half a dozen tipping points which will unavoidably make our species’ adaptation to a new climate iffy at best. But it’s people like Kelly that might pull us back from the brink. Of course we are about to blow past 400ppm like Valentino Rossi on a new Ducati, and the only way to stop that would be to stop the world economy for a while. And there aren’t too many journalists whose bosses would let them suggest that. Mind you, on current evidence it’s looking like a distinct possibility.

What saddened me was the feeling that we all knew this stuff. All the panel knew it. All the audience, many of whom were either journalists or activists, knew that while the science was fine, the forces ranged against a grown up discussion about the climate were vast, rich and winning. The unavoidable problem is that big chunks of the population are largely indifferent or they simply don’t believe it. There’s a feeling it’s all a bit of a bore and people are sick and tired of  being terrified. They’re already terrified about the economy without a bunch of campaigners telling them they’re evil for having a car and they have to dig up the garden and grow vegetables. Add in the people who think baby Jesus is coming back to save us, so it would be impolite to do anything, and you see the problem. There’s not enough of us to win. But we had fun.

For you up to the minute people out there, James Hansen and Makiko Sato have a new website which is updating data as it comes in. Hansen has been right for so long, and ahead of the curve for so long, he’d be bored if he wasn’t so dedicated.

So that’s it for the resource depletion/climate catastrophe trajectory, but what about the singularity/exponential innovation trajectory? It’s been a banner period since I got back from the Atlantic.

First, at last, a hybrid that doesn’t look like a re-engineered can of beans. I’ve never understood why hybrids had to be the ugliest cars ever designed. Thank you Mr. Porsche. They call it Intelligent Performance. Now some of you know I’ve been ranting about how we couldn’t let the christian mad have the phrase “Intelligent Design”, because we were going to have to use it, you know, to save the world and stuff. Well here it is…

Finally a hybrid that rich people won’t feel silly or pretentious driving. Because if the rich don’t like it, it isn’t going to happen.

Second, Craig Venter is now the most important biologist since Darwin. Artificial life is here. Every science fiction fan in the world is thrilled. All the religious are having the usual “are you playing dog” nervous breakdown. Evolution just took a left turn.

Third, my personal favourite of the week, a robot priest marries a couple in Japan.

If that doesn’t tell you the future’s arrived nothing will.

I’ve been continuing my reading on the humanitarian crisis, or rather the crisis in humanitarianism, and I’m wondering how this all plays into the scenarios above.  I’m reading (for the second time, the first time was so depressing I had to take a break) The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good, by former World Bank economist William Easterly, as well as Conor Foley’s The Thin Blue Line: How Humanitarianism Went to War and Linda Polman’s War Games: The Story of Aid and War in Modern Times. The gist here is that we spent $2.3 trillion since the end of WW2, did no good, did a lot of harm, enriched numbers of dictators beyond their considerable dreams of avarice,  got them nice places on the French Riviera and Malibu, perverted international law, and turned the whole thing into a questionable arm of western corporate/military hegemony. Hard to see why we don’t just quit.

Add to this Johann Hari’s rant in the Independent about the nasty connections between major environmental groups and nasty corporations, that are in fact killing the planet while lying about it, and now you know why I’m going to take my secretary for a week’s sailing in Turkey.

I try to be as cynical as humanly possible, and it’s still not enough to keep up with reality.